World Bank Ups Growth Forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (Report)

(HN, January 13, 2010) - Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa - the world's poorest region - will expand by as much as 5.3 percent in 2011, up from 1.7 percent in 2009, acccording to the World Bank.Tourism remittances are up in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, boosting economic prospects 

"In Sub-Saharan Africa, if you take out South Africa then we are at average growth rates of above 6 percent, similar growth rates as they achieved during the period before the crisis; overall, a very strong growth picture," said Hans Timmer, Director for the Prospects Group at the World Bank.

The latest Bank forecast for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is an increase from 5.1 percent and is connected to the global economy recovery, and improved outlook for oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola.

The biggest risk to the continent's growth is another slump in the global economy as most African countries have “depleted the fiscal space they had created during the pre-crisis period and have not had time to rebuild it,” the Bank said.

Some countries saw a welcome uptick in tourist arrivals - especially South Africa, thanks to the World Cup. However, Cape Verde, Kenya, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tanzania also experienced an increase in tourism revenue, the Bank said.

Also positive is that remittance flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, which remained nearly flat during the crisis, registered a modest 1 percent gain in 2010 to reach $21 billion, the Bank says.

Remittance flows are important in supporting household consumption in a number of Sub-Saharan African countries, accounting for up to 25 percent of GDP in Lesotho and about 10 percent in Cape Verde, Senegal and Togo.

There are some dark clouds on the horizon for the region - especially climate change, which weighs heavily on the Bank's agenda for Africa.

Africa is facing an annual loss of 1 to 2 percent annual GDP because of climate variability, the Bank said in its latest Annual Report.

"Global temperature increases are expected to lead to reduced rainfall, water shortages, and compressed growing periods in Western and Southern Africa, and to increased rainfall, heavier flooding, and fiercer and more frequent cyclones in Northeast Africa," said the Bank.

An ongoing drought in Niger, Chad and northern Nigeria is ruining harvests and has forced thousands of families to seek emergency food aid for their severely malnourished children.

A mother holds her child at the Intensive Nutritional Rehabilitation Centre, which treats undernourished children in Niger. CREDIT: UnicefToday, UNICEF announced a new 3-million Euro commitment from the European Commission for Humanitarian Aid (ECHO) for emergency food aid for more than 50,000 children in seven drought-hit states in northern Nigeria. The children's agency has reported a spike in admission of severely malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centres in places like Niger. Soaring food prices are partially to blame.

"When prices of staples soar, the poor bear the brunt. Without global action, people in poor countries will be deprived of adequate and nutritious food, with tragic consequences for individuals and for the future prosperity of their countries." World Bank President Robert Zoellick said recently in an opinion piece.

- HUMNEWS staff, World Bank