New Study Estimates Cholera Cases in Haiti Expected to Double Original Predictions (News Brief)

Patients being treated for Cholera in Haiti - photo courtesy of TopNews(HN March 18, 2011) -- Haiti could be facing nearly twice as many cases of cholera this year than what the United Nations originally estimated, say researchers from Harvard Medical School and the University of California, San Fancisco.

Haiti had been free of cholera for almost a century until last October, when the first cases of disease were reported.

Jason Andrews of Harvard Medical School and colleagues have just published a new study projecting the course of the epidemic over the next year. 

The new study suggests  that nearly 780,000 cholera cases could develop in 2011, with the disease killing about 11,000 people. The UN had estimated 400,000 cases of the diarrheal disease for the country.

The new study uses a more sophisticated mathematical model of the likely course of the outbreak than the U.N. used for its estimates.

Andrews' projection includes assumptions about improving water supplies, vaccination, and the use of antibiotics. He says his model indicates that those interventions can make a real difference in the ultimate impact of the epidemic.

"Certainly, if more aggressive interventions were done, such as vaccinating a larger proportion of the population or a faster rollout of clean water, the impact of interventions could be greater," he says. "But what we found was by doing all three of these interventions, you could avert a substantial burden of cholera and a substantial burden of deaths over the coming year, and that's one of the main messages of my analysis."

So far, 231,070 cholera cases and 4,549 deaths have been reported by the Haitian government.

UCSF medical resident Sanjay Basu, MD, has warned that the “epidemic is not likely to be short-term.”

“It is going to be larger than predicted in terms of sheer numbers and will last far longer than the initial projections,” Basu added.

Public health experts continue to debate the best way to control cholera - vaccination versus antibiotics versus sanitation. But Andrews says his model shows that even modest use of all three can have a significant impact in reducing cholera illness and death.

The model in Andrews' study projects the course of the epidemic for the next year, but it doesn't indicate when Haiti will again be free of cholera.

-HUMNews Staff