Reform in Myanmar (INTERVIEW / PERSPECTIVE)

International Crisis Group

(September 22, 2011) Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group's Southeast Asia Project Director, speaks about changes on the ground in Myanmar as President Thein Sein pursues a reform agenda and how Western nations can encourage further change. 

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Myanmar’s President Thein Sein has pursued a reform agenda since assuming office in March 2011, relaxing some restrictions on speech and political organizing and meeting with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Yet some critics denounce these moves as mere window dressing for a fundamentally unchanged military dictatorship. To discuss whether conditions are actually changing on the ground, I’m joined by Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s Southeast Asia Project Director. Jim joined me on the line from Jakarta.

Jim, give us a sense of some of the concrete reforms underway since President Thein Sein assumed office in March.

The most significant political reforms or signs of political reconciliation have really taken place since the middle of July. Since that time, we’ve seen President Thein Sein reach out to Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy, and try and win her over, along with others, to his reform agenda. He invited her and her followers--3,000 of them--to Martyr’s Day in the middle of July. The pace of meetings between Aung Kyi, the Labor Minister, and Aung San Suu Kyi has increased. We have most significantly seen a meeting with the president and Aung San Suu Kyi herself, and that is a very dramatic development because they were photographed under the portrait of her late father, and this was something that the previous government had very deliberately expunged from the public view.

Do you have a sense that the impetus for reform is flowing directly from the president and, if so, what opposition does he face within the military or the economic elite?

Reforms are definitely coming from the president himself. He is very personally involved and invested in convincing people from outside--Burmese who have lived overseas for many years--to come back and to help him with his reforms. His meeting Aung San Suu Kyi is one example of where he made a personal approach to bring her in and onto his side. And she has described that the changes as being very positive.

What are some of the obstacles Myanmar faces at this point to further reform?

It’s clear that the president has the military on his side. Recently, the parliament passed a motion on the release of prisoners, and the military faction voted in favor of that motion. And we, analyze that this may be because the head of the military may himself be considering running for office in five years time. There are people who have vested interests in the status-quo and who will try to stop these reforms or could stop these reforms. There is a lot fear about change, and the bureaucracy is very under-equipped to deal with this rapid change and reforms.  So, there’s a lot of things that could go wrong and the agenda of the president is very ambitious. But we feel it’s not the time to wait for it to fail. Particularly for western countries that have been disengaged from Myanmar in recent years, now is the time to try and support these reforms, which will have positive effects for the people of Myanmar.

So can you give me some specifics then about how Western nations can best engage and respond?

One example has been that people are very concerned overseas about the ongoing human rights abuses, which continue to this day as the military in Myanmar fights against ethic insurgents. It’s undeniable that human rights abuses are continuing, but the government has recently set up a human rights commission. This commission is a very new body. It’s lacking experience and skills and resources. There have been a number of nations in the past that have engaged with Myanmar on human rights, and here’s an opportunity for international assistance to help promote greater domestic accountability for human rights abuses in the country.

Many international observers have argued that the government’s reforms have been really paper thin and that the best way to achieve change is with new sanctions. What would you say in response to that line of thinking?

There’s a lot of differences everyday that we’re seeing in the way the country is governed. These are more than just words, but there’s still many concrete actions to be taken. To stay at the sidelines at this point is to deny the significance of the changes that are happening. Those people who’ve met Aung San Suu Kyi in recent weeks have found her very cogent, engaged, aware that she’s balancing complex and difficult issues, but also very optimistic. One visitor who we spoke to recently quoted her as saying, “those people who say there’s no change are not here.”

Would sanctions then be counterproductive at this point?

Crisis Group has long held the view that sanctions on Myanmar, targeted or non-targeted, are counterproductive. They encourage a siege mentality among its leadership, and they are harmful for the poor population of this country. The greater the pace of change, the weaker the rational becomes for continuing or adding more.

And what about some kind of international investigation?

There remains ample evidence that the army continues to employ brutal counterinsurgency strategies, and in the absence of domestic accountability, calls for an international commission will remain. But it is far from clear that an international commission, even if one could be established, is the most effective way to address the abuses at this time or whether its impact would be to cause backsliding or retrenchment in Myanmar.   There are already indications that the key benchmarks that many in the West have been insisting on for so long may soon be reached, such as the release of political prisoners. If there’s internal progress in human rights and significant economic reforms that benefit the country’s citizens, these should be acknowledged and the international community should be supporting these changes and encouraging more.

- Edited for print

Also from ICG, Myanmar: Major Reform Underway - The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.